parameter optimization - objective function reduction - where to start???

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hydrogall
hydrogall 2015 年 11 月 13 日
Hi, I have set up a model to simulate snow-water-equivalent and snowmelt. I would like to calibrate this model to my observed values of snow-water-equivalent. I know that matlab has solvers and parameter optimization tools, but I find the directions/description to be confusing. Where do I even begin with this? How do I establish the respective ranges for the parameters to be calibrated? How should my code be altered to enable parameter optimization?
Thank you for any direction,guidance and help!
%Degree-day method for snow melting.
%Data from the ...
x=load('C:\U....dat'); %Load the file with data
td=x(:,4); %hour of the day
GlobalRad=x(:,5); %Global Radiation
T=x(:,6); %Air Temperature
P=x(:,7); %Precipitation
Snow_obs=x(:,8); %SWE Observed
SnowDepth=x(:,9); %Snow Depth Observed
ts=x(:,10); %start time of daylight on day d (t0)
te=x(:,11); %end time of daylight on day d (t1)
dTd=x(:,12); %difference between the max and min daily temperatures on day d
snow_sim(1)=0;
runoff=zeros(length(P));
%Parameters (TO BE CALIBRATED)
Scf=1.3; %Snowfall correction factor
TT=1; %Threshold temperature
C=3.5; %Degree-day factor (mm day-1 C-1)(Ac)
B=0.05; % Factor to convert the temp amplitude into a degree day factor
%Parameters (USE DEFAULT)
Cfr=0.05; %Refreezing coefficient (use default value of 0.05)
Cwh=0.1; %Water holding capacity (use default value of 0.1)
snow_sim(1)=0; %Simulated snowpack is 0 mm for day 1
snow_sim_water(1)=0; %Liquid water in snowpack for day 1 the water is 0 mm
for t=1 : length(td); %time series loop
ln(t)=24-te(t)+ts(t); %length of the night
Z(t)=2*((te(t)-ts(t))/(3.14*ln(t))); %factor ensuring that daily mean vaules of As equals Ac
if ts(t)<=td(t)<te(t);
As(t)=C+(B*dTd(t)*(sin(3.14*((td(t)-ts(t))/(te(t)-ts(t)))))); %equation for time variant degree day factor secnario1
else As(t)=C-(B*dTd(t)*Z(t)); %equation for time variant degree day factor senario 2
end
end
as=As'; % transpose As from a row to a column vector
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
for t=2 : length(P); %time series loop
if T(t)< TT; %If the temperature for day t is lower than the threshold value for melting (=below TT degrees) then refreezing of melt water will occur
refreez(t)=Cfr*as(t)*(TT-T(t)); %Equation for refreezing of meltwater
if refreez(t) > snow_sim_water(t-1); %If the refreezing for day t is larger than the water in the snowpack the day before, then the refreezing is limited
refreez(t)= snow_sim_water(t-1); %Can't freez more water than is accumulated in the snowpack
end
snow_sim(t)=P(t)*Scf+snow_sim(t-1)+refreez(t); %The total simulated snowpack for any given day is the precipitation that day together with snow pack from day before and refreeze of that day.
snow_sim_water(t)=snow_sim_water(t-1)-refreez(t); %The total simulated amount of water in the snowpack is the water in the snowpack the day before minus the water refrozen the same day
else %T(t) > TT %temperature above threshold temperature, snowmelt will occur
Melt(t)=as(t)*(T(t)-TT); %Equations for melting rate of existing snowpack
if Melt(t) > snow_sim(t-1); %If the melting rate for day t is larger than the snowpack the day before, then the melting is limited
Melt(t)= snow_sim(t-1); %Because it can't melt more snow than is available
end
snow_sim(t)=snow_sim(t-1)-Melt(t); %Total simulated snow is the simulated snowpack for the day before minus the melted snow
snow_sim_water(t)=snow_sim_water(t-1)+P(t)+Melt(t); %Total water amount in snow is the water amount in snow for the day before plus the precipitation and the melted snow
if Cwh*snow_sim(t) < snow_sim_water(t); %The snowpack can retain as much as 10% of its water equivalent, but not more
runoff(t)=snow_sim_water(t)-0.1*snow_sim(t); %if there is more liquid water, this goes to runoff (note:if there is no snowpack all water will go to runoff
snow_sim_water(t)=0.1*snow_sim(t);
end
end
end
snow_sim_total=snow_sim+snow_sim_water; %The total simulated snowpack is the water in snow and the simulated snowpack
daynr=1:length(P);

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