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unpaidClaims

Compute unpaid claims estimates for bornhuetterFerguson object

Description

example

unpaidClaimsEstimate = unpaidClaims(bf) computes unpaid claims estimates for a bornhuetterFerguson object.

example

unpaidClaimsEstimate = unpaidClaims(___,referenceClaimsType) additionally specifies the type of claims data. Specify this argument after the input argument in the previous syntax.

Examples

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Compute unpaid claims estimates for a bornhuetterFerguson object for simulated insurance claims data.

load InsuranceClaimsData.mat;
head(data)
ans=8×4 table
    OriginYear    DevelopmentYear    ReportedClaims    PaidClaims
    __________    _______________    ______________    __________

       2010             12               3995.7          1893.9  
       2010             24                 4635          3371.2  
       2010             36               4866.8          4079.1  
       2010             48               4964.1            4487  
       2010             60               5013.7          4711.4  
       2010             72               5038.8          4805.6  
       2010             84                 5059          4853.7  
       2010             96               5074.1          4877.9  

Use developmentTriangle to convert the data to a development triangle, which is the standard form for representing claims data. Create two developmentTriangle objects, one for reported claims and one for paid claims.

dT_reported = developmentTriangle(data,'Origin','OriginYear','Development','DevelopmentYear','Claims','ReportedClaims')
dT_reported = 
  developmentTriangle with properties:

                          Origin: {10x1 cell}
                     Development: {10x1 cell}
                          Claims: [10x10 double]
                  LatestDiagonal: [10x1 double]
                     Description: ""
                      TailFactor: 1
    CumulativeDevelopmentFactors: [1.3069 1.1107 1.0516 1.0261 1.0152 ... ]
               SelectedLinkRatio: [1.1767 1.0563 1.0249 1.0107 1.0054 ... ]

dT_paid = developmentTriangle(data,'Origin','OriginYear','Development','DevelopmentYear','Claims','PaidClaims')
dT_paid = 
  developmentTriangle with properties:

                          Origin: {10x1 cell}
                     Development: {10x1 cell}
                          Claims: [10x10 double]
                  LatestDiagonal: [10x1 double]
                     Description: ""
                      TailFactor: 1
    CumulativeDevelopmentFactors: [2.4388 1.4070 1.1799 1.0810 1.0378 ... ]
               SelectedLinkRatio: [1.7333 1.1925 1.0914 1.0417 1.0196 ... ]

Create an expectedClaims object where the first input argument is the reported development triangle and the second input argument is the paid development triangle.

earnedPremium = [17000; 18000; 10000; 19000; 16000; 10000; 11000; 10000; 14000; 10000];
ec = expectedClaims(dT_reported, dT_paid,earnedPremium)
ec = 
  expectedClaims with properties:

         ReportedTriangle: [1x1 developmentTriangle]
             PaidTriangle: [1x1 developmentTriangle]
            EarnedPremium: [10x1 double]
            InitialClaims: [10x1 double]
          CaseOutstanding: [10x1 double]
    EstimatedClaimsRatios: [10x1 double]
     SelectedClaimsRatios: [10x1 double]

Create a bornhuetterFerguson object with reported claims, paid claims, and expected claims to calculate the ultimate claims, cases outstanding, IBNR claims, and unpaid claims estimates.

bf = bornhuetterFerguson(dT_reported, dT_paid, ec.ultimateClaims)
bf = 
  bornhuetterFerguson with properties:

     ReportedTriangle: [1x1 developmentTriangle]
         PaidTriangle: [1x1 developmentTriangle]
       ExpectedClaims: [10x1 double]
    PercentUnreported: [10x1 double]
        PercentUnpaid: [10x1 double]
      CaseOutstanding: [10x1 double]

Use unpaidClaims to to compute the unpaid claims estimates for the bornhuetterFerguson object.

unpaidClaimsEstimate = unpaidClaims(bf,"reported")
unpaidClaimsEstimate = 10×1
103 ×

    0.1968
    0.0506
    0.1299
    0.1095
    0.1767
    0.0981
    0.3915
    0.9838
    1.7208
    3.7320

Input Arguments

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Bornhuetter-Ferguson object, specified as a previously created bornhuetterFerguson object.

Data Types: object

Type of claims data, specified as a character vector or a string.

Data Types: char | string

Output Arguments

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Unpaid claims estimates, returned as an array.

More About

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Unpaid Claims

Unpaid claims are claims reserves for events that have occurred, including both reported and incurred-but-not-reported (IBNR) reserves, as well as the expenses of settling such claims.

Version History

Introduced in R2020b