kpsstest

KPSS test for stationarity

Syntax

h = kpsstest(y)

h = kpsstest(y,Name,Value)

[h,pValue] = kpsstest(___)

[h,pValue,stat,cValue,reg] = kpsstest(___)

Description

h = kpsstest(y) returns the logical value (h) with the rejection decision from conducting the Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS) test for a unit root in the univariate time series y.

h = kpsstest(y,Name,Value) uses additional options specified by one or more Name,Value pair arguments.

• If any Name,Value pair argument is a vector, then all Name,Value pair arguments specified must be vectors of equal length or length one. kpsstest(y,Name,Value) treats each element of a vector input as a separate test, and returns a vector of rejection decisions.

• If any Name,Value pair argument is a row vector, then kpsstest(y,Name,Value) returns a row vector.

[h,pValue] = kpsstest(___) returns the rejection decision and p-value for the hypothesis test, using any of the input arguments in the previous syntaxes.

[h,pValue,stat,cValue,reg] = kpsstest(___) additionally returns the test statistic, critical value, and a structure of regression statistics for the hypothesis test.

Examples

Assess Trend Stationarity of a Series

Reproduce the first row of the second half of Table 5 in Kwiatkowski et al., 1992.

Load the Nelson-Plosser Macroeconomic series data set.

load Data_NelsonPlosser

Linearize the real gross national product series (RGNP).

logGNPR = log(DataTable.GNPR);

Assess the null hypothesis that the series is trend stationary over a range of lags.

lags = (0:8)';
[~,pValue,stats] = kpsstest(logGNPR,'Lags',lags,'Trend',true);
results = [lags pValue stats]

results = 9×3

         0    0.0100    0.6299
    1.0000    0.0100    0.3367
    2.0000    0.0100    0.2421
    3.0000    0.0169    0.1976
    4.0000    0.0276    0.1729
    5.0000    0.0401    0.1578
    6.0000    0.0484    0.1479
    7.0000    0.0589    0.1412
    8.0000    0.0668    0.1370

The tests corresponding to 0 $$\le$$ lags $$\le$$ 2 produce p-values that are less than 0.01. For lags $$<$$ 7, the tests indicate sufficient evidence to suggest that log rGNP is unit root nonstationary (i.e., not trend stationary) at the default 5% level.

Test Trend Stationarity by Specifying Lags

Test whether the wage series in the manufacturing sector (1900-1970) has a unit root.

Load the Nelson-Plosser Macroeconomic data set.

load Data_NelsonPlosser
wages = DataTable.WN;
T = sum(isfinite(wages)); % Sample size without NaNs
sqrtT = sqrt(T) % See Kwiatkowski et al., 1992

sqrtT = 8.4261

Plot the wages series.

plot(dates,wages)
title('Wages')
axis tight

The plot suggests that the wages series grows exponentially.

Linearize the wages series.

logWages = log(wages);
plot(dates,logWages)
title('Log Wages')
axis tight

The plot suggests that the log wages series has a linear trend.

Test the hypothesis that the log wages series is a unit root process with a trend (i.e., difference stationary), against the alternative that there is no unit root (i.e., trend stationary). Conduct the test by setting a range of lags around $$\sqrt{T}$$, as suggested in Kwiatkowski et al., 1992.

[h,pValue] = kpsstest(logWages,'lags',[7:10])

h = 1x4 logical array

   0   0   0   0

pValue = 1×4

    0.1000    0.1000    0.1000    0.1000

All tests fail to reject the null hypothesis that the log wages series is trend stationary.

The p-values are larger than 0.1. The software compares the test statistic to critical values and computes p-values that it interpolates from tables in Kwiatkowski et al., 1992.

Input Arguments

y — Univariate time series

vector

Univariate time series, specified as a vector. The last element is the most recent observation.

NaNs indicate missing observations, and kpsstest removes them from y. Removing NaNs decreases the effective sample size and can cause an irregular time series.

Name-Value Arguments

Specify optional comma-separated pairs of Name,Value arguments. Name is the argument name and Value is the corresponding value. Name must appear inside quotes. You can specify several name and value pair arguments in any order as Name1,Value1,...,NameN,ValueN.

Example: 'alpha',0.1,'lags',0:2 specifies three tests that include 0, 1, and 2 autocovariance lags in the Newey-West estimator of the long-run variance, each conducted at 0.1 level of significance.

lags — Number of autocovariance lags

0 (default) | nonnegative integer | vector of nonnegative integers

Number of autocovariance lags to include in the Newey-West estimator of the long-run variance, specified as the comma-separated pair consisting of 'lags' and a nonnegative integer or vector of nonnegative integers. Use a vector to conduct multiple tests.

Example: 'lags',0:2

Data Types: double

trend — Indicate whether to include deterministic trend

true (default) | false | vector of logical values

Indicate whether to include the deterministic trend term δt in the model, specified as the comma-separated pair consisting of 'trend' and a logical value or a vector of logical values. Use a vector to conduct multiple tests.

Example: 'trend',false

Data Types: logical

alpha — Significance levels

0.05 (default) | scalar | vector

Significance levels for the hypothesis tests, specified as the comma-separated pair consisting of 'alpha' and a scalar or vector. All values of alpha must be between 0.01 and 0.10. Use a vector to conduct multiple tests.

Example: 'alpha',0.01

Data Types: double

Output Arguments

h — Test rejection decisions

logical | vector of logical values

Test rejection decisions, returned as a logical value or vector of logical values with a length equal to the number of tests that the software conducts.

• h = 1 indicates rejection of the trend-stationary null in favor of the unit root alternative.

• h = 0 indicates failure to reject the trend-stationary null.

pValue — Test statistic p-values

scalar | vector

Test statistic p-values, returned as a scalar or vector with a length equal to the number of tests that the software conducts. The p-values are right-tail probabilities.

When test statistics are outside tabulated critical values, kpsstest returns maximum (0.10) or minimum (0.01) p-values.

stat — Test statistics

scalar | vector

Test statistics, returned as a scalar or vector with a length equal to the number of tests that the software conducts.

kpsstest computes test statistics using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression.

• If you set 'trend',false, then the software regresses y on an intercept.

• Otherwise, the software regresses y on an intercept and trend term.

cValue — Critical values

scalar | vector

Critical values, returned as a scalar or vector with a length equal to the number of tests that the software conducts. Critical values are for right-tail probabilities.

reg — Regression statistics

data structure | data structure array

Regression statistics for ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation of coefficients in the alternative model, returned as a data structure or data structure array with a length equal to the number of tests that the software conducts.

Each data structure has the following fields.

Field	Description
num	Length of input series with NaNs removed
size	Effective sample size, adjusted for lags
names	Regression coefficient names
coeff	Estimated coefficient values
se	Estimated coefficient standard errors
Cov	Estimated coefficient covariance matrix
tStats	t statistics of coefficients and p-values
FStat	F statistic and p-value
yMu	Mean of the lag-adjusted input series
ySigma	Standard deviation of the lag-adjusted input series
yHat	Fitted values of the lag-adjusted input series
res	Regression residuals
DWStat	Durbin-Watson statistic
SSR	Regression sum of squares
SSE	Error sum of squares
SST	Total sum of squares
MSE	Mean square error
RMSE	Standard error of the regression
RSq	R2 statistic
aRSq	Adjusted R2 statistic
LL	Loglikelihood of data under Gaussian innovations
AIC	Akaike information criterion
BIC	Bayesian (Schwarz) information criterion
HQC	Hannan-Quinn information criterion

More About

Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS) Test

Assesses the null hypothesis that a univariate time series is trend stationary against the alternative that it is a nonstationary unit root process.

The test uses the structural model:

$$\begin{array}{l}{y}_t=c_t+\delta t+u_{1t}\\ c_t=c_{t-1}+u_{2t},\end{array}$$

where

• δ is the trend coefficient.

• u_1t is a stationary process.

• u_2t is an independent and identically distributed process with mean 0 and variance σ².

The null hypothesis is that σ² = 0, which implies that the random walk term (c_t) is constant and acts as the model intercept. The alternative hypothesis is that σ² > 0, which introduces the unit root in the random walk.

The test statistic is

$$\frac{{\displaystyle \sum }_{t=1}^T{S}_t^2}{s^2{T}^2},$$

where

• T is the sample size.

• s² is the Newey-West estimate of the long-run variance.

• $$S_t=e_1+e_2+\dots {\text{+e}}_t.$$

Tips

• In order to draw valid inferences from the KPSS test, you should determine a suitable value for 'lags'. These two methods determine a suitable number of lags:

  • Begin with a small number of lags and then evaluate the sensitivity of the results by adding more lags.

  • Kwiatkowski et al. [2] suggest that a number of lags on the order of $$\sqrt{T}$$, where T is the sample size, is often satisfactory under both the null and the alternative.

  For consistency of the Newey-West estimator, the number of lags must approach infinity as the sample size increases.

• You should determine the value of 'trend' by the growth characteristics of the time series. Determine its value with a specific testing strategy in mind.

  • If a series is growing, then include a trend term to provide a reasonable comparison of a trend stationary null and a unit root process with drift. kpsstest sets 'trend',true by default.

  • If a series does not exhibit long-term growth characteristics, then don’t include a trend term (i.e., set 'trend',false).

Algorithms

• kpsstest performs a regression to find the ordinary least squares (OLS) fit between the data and the null model.

• Test statistics follow nonstandard distributions under the null, even asymptotically. Kwiatkowski et al. [2] use Monte Carlo simulations, for models with and without a trend, to tabulate asymptotic critical values for a standard set of significance levels between 0.01 and 0.1. kpsstest interpolates critical values and p-values from these tables.

References

[1] Hamilton, J. D. Time Series Analysis. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994.

[2] Kwiatkowski, D., P. C. B. Phillips, P. Schmidt, and Y. Shin. “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root.” Journal of Econometrics. Vol. 54, 1992, pp. 159–178.

[3] Newey, W. K., and K. D. West. “A Simple, Positive Semidefinite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix.” Econometrica. Vol. 55, 1987, pp. 703–708.